Jubilant FoodWorks calibrates Domino's price hikes with machine learning

Jubilant FoodWorks took 140 to 200 basis points of price increases at Domino's India, and CEO Sameer Khetarpal says machine learning models now decide who pays what. "We've taken about 140 or 150 to 200 basis points of price increases, very calibrated through machine learning models, versus taking blunt price increases where we can — day parts, channels," Khetarpal said on the November 6 earnings call. That is a spread of up to 2 percent on the average bill, applied unevenly by time slot and ordering channel. The company did not say how much prices differ across those day parts or channels.

What does machine-calibrated pricing mean in practice?

Day parts are the time slots a restaurant splits sales into — lunch, dinner, late night. Channels are ordering routes such as delivery and dine-in. The calibration extends to discounts. "Using personalisation and data models, we have been able to target discounts," the company told shareholders in its quarterly letter.

Targeted discounts mean two customers can pay different prices for the same order. Jubilant has not disclosed which customer data feeds those models. MediaNama founder Nikhil Pahwa flagged this risk in a 2017 editorial: businesses with large data pools "might be in a position to reduce the consumer surplus in order to maximise profits." He also asked how customised customisation can be before it stops benefiting the consumer. The shareholder letter describes "targeted, data-led pricing actions where our value proposition allows, while protecting affordability" — without naming the products or customers affected.

How did the pricing toolkit evolve since 2025?

• August 2025: A/B testing on individual products preceded a Big Big Pizza price rise, which was rolled back after customer reaction.
• May 2026: Khetarpal defended pricing as "very calibrated after 14 to 16 weeks of strong experimentation." CFO Suman Hegde confirmed "store specific and discount specific variation."
• November 2026: Pricing is now calibrated by machine learning across day parts and channels.

In roughly 15 months, management language moved from product-level A/B tests to models that vary prices by hour and channel.

Why is Jubilant raising prices?

Cost pressure drove the move. Hegde cited "significant inflation" in dairy, plus similar pressure on chicken and vegetables linked to the monsoon and the West Asia crisis. Khetarpal said the India team absorbed a 200 basis point hit from LPG prices and wage increases across states. "They've been able to absorb almost 140 basis points with all the actions they've taken. 60 basis points is still sitting," he said.

Further increases remain possible. "If need be, we will take further price increases," Khetarpal said. Hegde added the company will price "in a calibrated manner to mitigate it and manage our gross margins effectively." Khetarpal hopes the West Asia conflict ends and oil prices fall; if not, he said, more levers remain.

What is happening to dine-in and takeaway?

Jubilant is pushing value back into stores after years of dilution, in three moves: an in-store-only "My Meal at Rs. 119" deal, refurbishment of about 400 stores with front-of-house changes, and CRM-led local marketing by store managers targeting nearby households. Because some deals are store-only, takeaway and delivery customers can pay different amounts for identical orders.

Dine-in and takeaway revenue grew 2.4 percent in the quarter. "If we can add whatever 1%-2% to LFL, it'll completely change the growth trajectory and also the margin profile," Khetarpal said. Like-for-like growth, which measures stores open over a year, rose to 4.1 percent for Domino's India, up from 2.5 percent in the June quarter.

How does the app compete with Zomato and Swiggy?

Delivery accounted for 75.8 percent of Domino's India revenue. Jubilant's apps across Domino's, Popeyes and Hong's Kitchen hold about 6 million monthly transacting users; active users grew roughly 25 percent while transacting users grew about 9 percent. Khetarpal said new customers convert slowly and long-term customer value is not falling. Domino's also sells through Zomato and Swiggy — Jubilant has not said whether its models price items differently there.

The company rejects platform fees. "I'm dead against that," Khetarpal said in August 2025. "Our own app is growing for a reason, because we kept it simple." He cited India's 5 to 6 million daily deliveries against China's 90 million as the growth headroom.

Where else does customer data go?

• Site selection: New high-street stores leverage the delivery-area database.
• Advertising: Brands such as Apple and Airtel buy in-app ads targetable by zip code.
• Refunds: An AI chatbot flags invalid refund claims and order outliers.
• Surveillance: AI-enabled monitoring is expanding for compliance.
• Labour: Popeyes is deploying technology to manage in-store manpower cost.

Jubilant has not confirmed whether the same data feeds pricing and discount models. Consolidated revenue rose 11.8 percent to Rs 2,608 crore; profit from continuing operations was Rs 113.9 crore. Popeyes posted 53 percent like-for-like growth and 122 percent revenue growth, with roughly 100 stores and a mapped path to the next 150.

By Daniel Okafor