Nebius's $40 Billion Build Faces Delivery and Financing Risk

Nebius plans $40 billion of 2027 spending, far above Wall Street expectations, while major contracted capacity remains delayed and financing still depends on customer promises.

That commitment rests on customer prepayments and loans backed by customer contracts, effectively using future data-center cash flows to finance construction and leaving repayment exposed to delays or cancellations.

Management disclosed the plan on Thursday's third-quarter earnings call.

Can Nebius finance the 2027 build?

Management expects customer prepayments and asset-backed financing of investment-grade contracts to cover up to 85% of a $40-$45 billion 2027 capital plan, more than three times forecast 2027 revenue of $12-$13 billion.

• Nebius ended the quarter with $7.4 billion in cash.
• CFO Maria Del Dado Alonso Sanchez identified Microsoft and Meta contracts as eligible for asset-backed financing.
• New third-quarter agreements carried prepayments exceeding their construction costs.
• Microsoft and Meta deals included significant prepayments received long before delivery, chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky said.
• Boroditsky said Nebius could “tap prepayments to shore up any additional cash requirements.”

Nebius's 85% coverage target still assumes contracted capacity arrives on schedule.

What does the Microsoft delay change?

Microsoft is one of Nebius's largest customers and pays for AI computing capacity at a Vineland, New Jersey, data center now months behind schedule. The broader Nebius contract is worth up to $19.4 billion.

Only just over half of the Microsoft capacity is planned for delivery by year-end. The remainder is scheduled for the second quarter of 2027. The original deployment windows covered 2025 and 2026, so the revised schedule falls well outside them.

Under Nebius's contract summary, Microsoft may terminate affected service after a grace period if dates are missed and no alternative capacity is offered. The contract also carries financial penalties for late delivery.

Nebius said Microsoft participated in the planning process. It did not say Microsoft accepted the revised dates. Microsoft has not publicly canceled anything. TechCrunch sought comment from Nebius, Microsoft and DataOne.

Why is Vineland behind schedule?

DataOne, the site's third-party operator, accelerated the shutdown of temporary generation, according to chief product and infrastructure officer Andrey Korolenko, while the site switches to Bloom Energy fuel cells.

In August, Floodlight reported at least 45 natural-gas generators operating without permits for gas generation. New Jersey regulators fined DataOne $1.1 million, finding that generator use violated federal law.

Nearby residents have filed a noise-complaint lawsuit over alleged constant humming from the data center. The power transition, the $1.1 million permit fine and residents' lawsuit add exposure around a Microsoft deployment tied to an up-to-$19.4 billion contract.

Is Microsoft pulling back from neocloud deals?

Bloomberg reported last week that Microsoft was tightening oversight of third-party projects involving Nebius, IREN and Nscale, sending employees to the New Jersey site and debating whether to sign new agreements.

Microsoft said its capital spending fell below expectations because of third-party delays. Bloomberg reported that Microsoft will not use an option to more than double its Nscale agreement for a Texas data center. Microsoft also stopped being an anchor customer for Nscale's planned Essex site after power delays.

These actions do not show a public cancellation of Nebius work. They do show Microsoft reassessing third-party capacity, which matters because Nebius's $19.4 billion Microsoft agreement and new financing both assume dependable counterparties.

Can Nebius's own sites offset third-party delays?

Nebius says delays affect sites it does not control, while its company-built data centers are coming online on time or ahead of schedule and should provide most new capacity from 2027.

That reassurance remains untested against a $40-$45 billion spending plan. A large deployment slipping into 2027 would again shift revenue, costs and financing needs.

CEO Arkady Volozh was direct: “Building at this scale is hard, and delays are part of our industry right now. We are not immune.”

What do the forecasts show?

Nebius reported third-quarter revenue of $981 million, up 571% from a year earlier, although roughly one-third came from a one-time payment tied to a new partnership model.

The company cut its 2026 revenue forecast by $200 million, to $3 billion, citing delays at third-party sites including New Jersey. Shares ended the trading day down 17%.

For 2027, Nebius forecasts revenue of $12-$13 billion and pre-tax break-even in the fourth quarter. That forecast depends on delayed Vineland capacity, new customer prepayments and company-controlled sites arriving together.